In the FCS Huddle: Spoilers ready to step up

NCAA Football Betting Lines

06/25/2010 - Philadelphia, PA (Sportsbook Betting Lines) - There are always teams that look like locks on paper.

You know, like France and Italy advancing to the knockout phase of the World Cup.

And that's the point. There are no sure things in sports.

The older we get, the more we realize that we should not be overly surprised by upsets and when favored teams fail to do what we expect of them - like win a championship.

Half of the FCS' 14 conferences appear to have definitive favorites this season, while the other half appear to be more up for grabs. The seven consensus picks would be Montana in the Big Sky Conference, Liberty in the Big South Conference, South Carolina State in the Mid-Eastern Athletic Conference, Colgate in the Patriot League, Appalachian State in the Southern Conference, Stephen F. Austin in the Southland Conference and Prairie View A&M in the Southwestern Athletic Conference. All but Colgate is a defending champion.

There's a reason, however, why teams play the games. None of the other teams considered below those seven wants to hear it doesn't have a chance within their conference.

Below we list a potential spoiler or two from those seven conference that aren't planning to be second-best:

Big Sky

Montana (14-1, 8-0 in 2009) has won at least a share of the conference title in 12 straight seasons, but lost a number of key players. Eastern Washington (8-4, 6-2) banks its hope on the conference's best defensive player (linebacker J.C. Sherritt), perhaps the conference's best offensive player (running back Taiwan Jones) and the conference's most influential transfer (quarterback Bo Levi Mitchell from SMU). The Eagles host Montana on their new red turf Sept. 18. Montana State (7-4, 5-3) ends the regular season on Nov. 20 at Montana. The Bobcats' offensive and defensive lines are experienced, and they have excellent special teams, including place-kicker Jason Cunningham.

Big South

Liberty (8-3, 5-1) averaged 36.4 points per game to lead the FCS last year. But Charleston Southern (6-5, 4-2) has a defense led by defensive end Joel Walton and cornerback Chris Kuzdale, a balanced offense and experience in its special teams. The Buccaneers played nail-biters in their conference losses to Gardner-Webb and Liberty last season. They visit Liberty on Oct. 9.

MEAC

South Carolina State (10-2, 8-0) is probably the nation's biggest favorite for a conference title because it won every MEAC game by double-digits last season and returns a veteran team. But Florida A&M (8-3, 6-2) should be strong offensively with a solid line, two potential quarterbacks in Eddie Battle and Martin Ukpai, and running back Philip Sylvester. The Rattlers host South Carolina State on Oct. 2. One week later, the favored Bulldogs host Norfolk State (7-4, 5-3), which won its final four games and have the conference's most productive returning back, DeAngelo Branche, who will operate behind an experienced line. Either Chris Walley or Jake Strickler, a pair of junior college transfers, figures to be the starting quarterback.

Patriot

Some team will have to slow Colgate (9-2, 4-2) and its high-powered offense. For a change, defending champion Holy Cross (9-3, 5-1) is strongest on defense with the return of defensive end Mude Ohimor and safety Anthony DiMichele. However, the Crusaders, who visit Colgate on Oct. 23, have lost four-year starting quarterback Dominic Randolph. Lehigh (4-7, 4-2) wants to win for struggling coach Andy Coen (20-24 in four seasons) and has an excellent quarterback in J.B. Clark, who works behind a line that features standout tackle Will Rackley. After hosting Colgate on Oct. 30, the Mountain Hawks play their final three league games on the road.

Southern

Appalachian State (11-3, 8-0) reached the FCS semifinals last season and has one of the more talent-laden rosters in the nation. Elon (9-3, 7-1) will likely have to win in Boone, N.C., to make it a race. The Phoenix have a quarterback, senior Scott Riddle, who also has thrown for 10,003 yards and 78 touchdowns in his career. Middle linebacker Joshua Jones fuels the defense.

Southland

Stephen F. Austin (10-3, 6-1) has all the pieces in place for another banner season, but McNeese State (9-3, 6-1) has the type of defense that can stand up to the Lumberjacks, including defensive tackle Desmund Lighten and free safety Malcolm Bronson. The Cowboys visit SFA on Oct. 9. Texas State (7-4, 5-2) has a defense that already has stood up to SFA, winning 28-7 last season. The Bobcats are still waiting to see if two-time 1,000-yard rusher Karrington Bush will be eligible this season, but they definitely will have standout wide receiver Da'Marcus Griggs and linebacker Marcus Clark. They visit SFA on Oct. 30.

SWAC

Prairie View A&M (9-1, 7-0) came within three points of FBS New Mexico State, and a perfect season, last fall. But the Panthers can't forget that until their three-point win over Grambling State (8-5, 6-3), they hadn't beaten the Tigers since 1986. The Tigers have perhaps the most intimidating defensive player in the FCS in defensive end Christian Anthony. They're still awaiting word on whether quarterback Greg Dillon will be granted a sixth year of eligibility, but will have two quality returning backs in Frank Warren and Cornelius Walker. Their all-important meeting with Prairie View is Sept. 25 in Dallas.

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Pacific-10 Conference odds

Teams that should be in: Stanford

Oregon and USC get their tickets punched after taking care of business this weekend. Yes, the Trojans' computer numbers aren't great, but there's no way the third-place team in this league is getting nixed. Grudgingly, I added Arizona after consultation with our Bracketologist. I don't know that Arizona will lose its last three (including a Pac-10 quarterfinal game), and even if the Cats do, I still can't see how they'd be left out, given the overall profile. That said, it bears watching, as three more L's would leave them at 18-12 (9-9) and on a 6-11 skid entering the Dance. It would be nice to see the Wildcats get at least one W in the Bay Area next week, as Cincinnati (albeit without Armein Kirkland and with a worse profile) was axed after a similar slide last season. I just couldn't rationalize having some of the other teams as locks and not having Arizona in that category -- there just aren't enough good teams behind the Cats to threaten their spot, it seems. Stanford has its fate in its own hands with the Arizona schools coming to the Farm to close out the regular season next weekend.

Should be in:

Stanford [17-10 (9-7), RPI: 40, SOS: 21] No shame in not getting a win in L.A., but that makes the home game against Arizona State a must-win ahead of what could be an intriguing meeting with Arizona should the Cats lose at Cal. Getting to 11 Pac-10 wins would make Selection Sunday much more comfortable, but 10's probably more than enough this season. The Cardinal have nonconference wins over Texas Tech and at Virginia to lean on, although they also lost badly to Air Force and Santa Clara at home.

Southeastern Conference odds
Work left to do: Alabama, Georgia, Mississippi, Mississippi State

It looks more and more possible that no one from the SEC West will make the NCAAs. How weird is that? Tennessee and Vandy move into the locks category after more good work this weekend. Kentucky stays there, although it would be smart for the Cats to handle Georgia at home Wednesday ahead of a trip to the Swamp. Could a disaster scenario (two more L's and a first-round SEC tourney exit) somehow dislodge the Cats despite their incredible computer numbers? Still unlikely, but not worth chancing it.

Work left to do:

Alabama [19-9 (6-8), RPI: 43, SOS: 47] The tough L at Tennessee was understandable, and even created some hope. Unfortunately, that hope was dashed by a home loss to Auburn, which leaves the Tide in some real trouble. There's still no signature win on the profile (no, Kentucky doesn't count), and the computer profile is weakening rapidly. The Tide conceivably could beat Ole Miss and win at Miss. State to get to 8-8 and clinch at least a share of the West crown, but that's probably not enough right now. The Tide will need to do some work in the SEC tourney.

Georgia [16-10 (8-6), RPI: 52, SOS: 23] This is the team with the best chance to make it from this section right now. The Bulldogs rebounded from a terrible performance at Ole Miss to beat down Miss. State. Now they are at Kentucky (king of the RPI 51-100 win) and home to Tennessee. That would be worth a lot of computer points to get both (which is doable), as both teams are in the top 11 in RPI. Finishing at least 9-7 is an absolute must, and I would feel much better about the Dawgs' chances if they got both to get to 10 SEC wins. They also beat Gonzaga, but lost to ACC bubblers Georgia Tech and Clemson.

Mississippi [18-10 (7-7), RPI: 63, SOS: 79] Like everyone else in this division, Ole Miss gacked up a chance to stake a claim, losing by double figures at South Carolina. Even 9-7 likely is not nearly enough with a nonconference profile devoid of anything notable.

Mississippi State [16-11 (7-7), RPI: 66, SOS: 37] With a chance to get in the mix, these Bulldogs were leashed by their Georgia counterparts. Could they get to 9-7? I guess -- although winning at Arkansas, then beating Alabama is no lock -- but would that mean all that much for a team with this overall profile? Probably not. There's nothing of note (on the good side) in the nonconference profile.

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