Are Titans About to Fall in Jacksonville?

Football Betting Lines

11/14/2008 - (Sportsbook Betting Lines) - This Sunday's matchup between the unbeaten Tennessee Titans and Jacksonville Jaguars has an eerie sense to it. This battle between two AFC South rivals doesn't bode well for the Titans, who will roll the dice at Jacksonville Municipal Stadium in hopes of earning 10 straight wins to start the season.

Tennessee has been using its superb running game and stifling defense to win its first nine games of the year. But in Sunday's 21-14 nail-biting victory at Chicago's Soldier Field, the Bears dared Tennessee to throw and easily handled running backs LenDale White and rookie Chris Johnson, holding Tennessee to just 20 yards rushing.

So with the ground attack out the window, the Titans were forced to rely on the veteran arm of quarterback Kerry Collins, who passed for a season-high 289 yards with a pair of touchdowns and no interceptions. Tight end Bo Scaife has emerged as Collins' top receiver and finished with a career-high 10 catches for 78 yards and a score.

Collins took over for Vince Young in a Week 1 win versus the Jaguars and has yet to relinquish the starting spot.

Head coach Jeff Fisher has guided Tennessee to a franchise-record 12 straight regular-season wins dating back to December 16 of last season. The Titans have won six straight road games over that span as well and are currently four games ahead of the Indianapolis Colts in the competitive AFC South Division.

Jacksonville just completed a stretch of three straight contests against seemingly-overmatched teams in Cleveland, Cincinnati and Detroit, and ended a two-game slide with last weekend's blowout victory over the winless Lions. Head coach Jack Del Rio avoided back-to-back losses to winless clubs after making some changes in the locker room following a loss to the Bengals.

Del Rio's bunch received a solid effort from running back Maurice Jones-Drew, who ended with 70 yards and three scores on 11 carries, last week. Quarterback David Garrard threw a pair of touchdown passes with no interceptions, while the defense played tough for the first time in more than a month.

The Jaguars entered the 2008 season known as having one of the top run defenses in the league, but are just 20th in the NFL in that category after nine games. They'll likely be ready for White and Johnson, however, because it's almost a guarantee Fisher will try again to establish the run before going to the air.

It could be another tough go for the Tennessee tandem, and this time Collins may not be able to save the day and the team's unblemished record.

SERIES HISTORY

Tennessee leads the all-time regular season series with the Jaguars, 15-12, including a 17-10 home victory when the teams met in Week 1. Last season, the teams engaged in an unconventional home-and-home split, including a 13-10 road win for the Titans in Week 1. The Jags' last home win over the Titans came in 2006, a 37-7 rout.

In addition to the regular season series, the teams have met once in the playoffs, with Tennessee scoring a 33-14 road victory in the 1999 AFC Championship.

Fisher is 16-12 versus Jacksonville all-time, including the aforementioned playoff win. Del Rio is 5-6 against both Fisher and the Titans in his career.

WHEN THE TITANS HAVE THE BALL

Collins (1,525 passing yards, 5 TD, 3 INT) was thrust into the spotlight in Chicago after the heralded Tennessee running game was stopped dead in its tracks. The former Penn State star passed for a season-high 289 yards, including 10 passes for 78 yards and a touchdown to Scaife (42 receptions, 2 TD). Scaife leads the team in receptions and receiving yards (422), and needs four more catches to match his 2007 total. Collins improved to 9-3 as a starter with Tennessee and has thrown for 785 yards with two TD strikes and no picks for an 83.7 passer rating over his last four games. Wideout Brandon Jones (27 receptions) had a career-best eight catches for 82 yards last week for the Titans, who are only 27th in passing this season (178.4 ypg).

The Jaguars had a chance to face new Lions quarterback Daunte Culpepper last week, and the former first-round pick finished just 5-of-10 passing for 104 yards and an interception. Culpepper was picked off early by Jaguars Pro Bowl cornerback Rashean Mathis (27 tackles, 3 INT). Mathis also had three pass breakups and owns six interceptions lifetime against the Titans. Safety Gerald Sensabaugh (43 tackles, 2 INT) blocked a punt last week and finished with six tackles as well. Jacksonville was able to shake up Detroit's passing game by sacking Culpepper and Drew Stanton seven times, with linebacker Daryl Smith (41 tackles, 2.5 sacks) and rookie defensive end Derrick Harvey (10 tackles, 1.5 sacks, 1 INT) posting a career-high 1 1/2 sacks apiece. Jacksonville must apply pressure on the immobile Collins and penetrate the gaps to create commotion in the pocket.

After dominating much of the NFL headlines over the first eight weeks of the season, Titans running backs White and Johnson were held in check at Chicago last Sunday. Johnson (723 rushing yards, 5 TD), who is second in the AFC in rushing, compiled just eight yards on 14 carries, while White (418 rushing yards, 11 TD) ran for 14 yards and a score on 10 carries. Tennessee, which is sixth in rushing offense this season, compiled just 20 total yards on the ground for the day as the offensive line had to deal with eight or nine Bears in the box, forcing the offense to pass. The duo will surely face a similar game plan in Jacksonville this week. White has six touchdowns in his last four games and had 40 yards and a touchdown on 15 carries against Jacksonville in Week 1. Johnson recorded 127 total yards (93 rushing, 34 receiving) in that win.

The key to winning for the Jaguars will be stopping the run. Last year they were one of the best in that area, but this year has been different. With tackle Marcus Stroud in Buffalo and fellow interior lineman John Henderson (26 tackles, 2 sacks) missing time due to injury, Jacksonville has slipped to 20th in rushing defense, allowing 113.1 yards a game. Tackle Tony McDaniel (13 tackles, 0.5 sacks) stepped in for Henderson last Sunday and made five stops. Middle linebacker Mike Peterson (49 tackles, 1 sack) did not play Sunday after he was fined and briefly sent home for insubordination. Peterson reportedly challenged Del Rio in a team meeting and was made inactive against Detroit. The Jaguars need his services this week, but Del Rio has given no word on whether he'll play. Smith (41 tackles, 2.5 sacks) started in the middle for Peterson and posted seven tackles and 1 1/2 sacks. Justin Durant (33 tackles) chipped in six stops from his outside linebacker position a week ago.

WHEN THE JAGUARS HAVE THE BALL

Garrard (2,009 passing yards, 8 TD, 5 INT) took advantage of Detroit's weak pass defense last Sunday by throwing for 238 yards and a pair of touchdowns. He was sacked just once and had enough time to find nine different receivers. He won't have that luxury against a tough Tennessee defense this week. Garrard has been playing very well the past six games, passing for 1,462 yards with seven touchdowns and only one interception for a 95.7 quarterback rating. His favorite target this season has been Matt Jones (50 receptions, 586 receiving yards, 2 TD), who owns five or more catches in eight of nine games this season. He had 62 yards on five catches last week and leads the team in receptions and yards. Offseason pickups Jerry Porter (5 receptions, 1 TD) and Troy Williamson (4 receptions, 1 TD) both recorded their first touchdowns of the season against Detroit. The Jags are hopeful the two can contribute to this week's big matchup with Tennessee. Tight end Marcedes Lewis (21 receptions, 2 TD) tied a career high with 64 receiving yards last week.

The Titans are 12th against the pass in 2008, allowing 194.4 yards per game through the air. They have a talented defensive backfield led by cornerback Nick Harper (43 tackles, 2 INT), who suffered an ankle injury against the Bears but should be ready to go on Sunday. Strong safety Chris Hope (52 tackles, 4 INT, 1 sack) picked off Chicago's Rex Grossman last weekend and has four interceptions over the past three weeks. Cornerback Cortland Finnegan (47 tackles, 4 INT, 1 sack), free safety Michael Griffin (46 tackles, 4 INT, 1 sack) and Hope are all tied for second in the league with four picks each. Grossman passed for 173 yards, but most of it was compiled on the Bears' opening drive. Garrard is an efficient passer and protects the ball, having been picked off only once in the last six games. Tennessee's secondary will be ready for -- and matches up well against -- Jones, Williams and Lewis.

Jacksonville will try to beat Tennessee with a taste of its own medicine by grinding out yards and time on the ground. Jones-Drew (433 rushing yards, 9 TD) found the end zone a career-high three times last week and ran for 70 yards on 11 carries. He has four rushing touchdowns over the past two weeks, and can also serve as a receiving threat out of the backfield, as evidenced by his 253 yards on 28 catches. Fred Taylor (358 rushing yards) is still searching for a touchdown on the season and is now a change-of-pace back for the Jags' 14th-rated rushing offense. Taylor posted 80 yards on 18 touches in the win over Detroit. For his career, he is averaging 85.5 rushing yards per game in November. Sunday's matchup was only the third time this season Jones- Drew and Taylor have combined for 100 yards rushing or more. Taylor's total last week sent him over 11,000 yards rushing for his career.

Much like Jacksonville, Tennessee is also a tough team to establish a ground game against. Bears rookie running back Matt Forte ran for 72 yards on 20 carries and no touchdowns last week against the Titans' eighth-rated run defense, which allows 90.1 yards per game. Run-stuffing defensive tackle Albert Haynesworth (32 tackles, 6 sacks) will be busy trying to clog the running lanes for Jones-Drew and Taylor, and will be aided by fellow tackle Tony Brown (30 tackles, 3.5 sacks) up front. Defensive end Kyle Vanden Bosch (15 tackles, 3 sacks) did not play against Chicago and hasn't since exiting a November 2 contest versus Green Bay with a groin injury. The Titans could use his rush around the edges for Sunday's divisional battle. Linebacker Keith Bulluck (58 tackles, 0.5 sacks) made his 106th consecutive start last weekend by shaking off a nagging rib injury. Linebackers David Thornton (42 tackles) and Stephen Tulloch (35 tackles) will team with Bulluck to try to stop Jones- Drew and Taylor.

FANTASY FOCUS

A lot of fantasy points will be garnered on the ground in this matchup, and White and Johnson are definite starters for this week. Tennessee's defense is also a good choice, even though it faces a rival Jacksonville squad on the road. Collins should only be used in emergency situations, since it's not too often opponents shut down the Titans' talented running back duo. As for Jacksonville, Jones-Drew and Taylor are solid starts and will take on the same scenario Tennessee's tandem faces against a tough defense. Garrard is another gamble. Don't let his two touchdown passes from a week before fool you, since he has thrown for a pair of scores in a game just once in 2008. Matt Jones has been Garrard's favorite target, and there is no reason why that would stop.

OVERALL ANALYSIS

Jacksonville needs this game badly to define its season and stay in playoff contention in the AFC. It will try to establish the run game early and keep the Titans guessing on defense, with Jones-Drew leading the way and Taylor grinding out necessary yards. Del Rio's defense will give Collins problems all day and keep the opposing ground attack in check. White and Johnson will most likely combine for less than 75 yards rushing on Sunday against a determined and energized Jacksonville defense. The Jaguars earned a much-needed confidence boost with their convincing win over Detroit, and it will spill over into Sunday's AFC South affair. The Titans will probably win the division, but it won't happen with an unbeaten record.

Sportsbook Betting Lines Predicted Outcome: Jaguars 24, Titans 20